Toy Story 4 leads hit or miss June
By Julien Rodger
Toy Story 4 should have no problem winning June at the box office. The 3rd film adjusts to 480.6 million, the 2nd 431.0 million and the original 395.3 million and Pixar is coming off its two biggest films of all time in Incredibles 2’s 608.6 million and Finding Dory’s 486.3 million despite neither setting the world on fire creatively. They have found the touch pleasing its fans and with superb tracking thus far it’s more likely to break out to 500 or 600 million than to fall short of 400 million.
The Secret Life of Pets 2 looks to fall well short of the original’s 368.4 million. While pet lovers haven’t gone anywhere it could play like a comedy sequel where it’s hard to recapture a joke people found funny in the moment in the buzz after the original’s trailer. It should open over 50 million but limp to under 200 total.
Dark Phoenix and Men In Black: International will play Russian roulette with at least one if not both bombing. After X-Men: Apocalypse made 155 million and repeating the storyline from X3, Dark Phoenix will continue to show fatigue for the franchise and struggle to a 50 million opening and 125 million total. Without Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones and replaced by the kiss of death in Chris Hemsworth in a non-Marvel film and Tessa Thompson, Men in Black will likely fall of MIB 3’s 179.0 million gross and will have an opening in the 30 million range and 100 million total.
Shaft is likely to fall in the camp of Baywatch of a nostalgia product too far away for this generation to find relevant and struggle to 20 million opening and 50 million total. Child’s Play is a wild card as Chucky is an iconic villain like Pennywise and Michael Myers. While it’s unlikely to reach the heights of It. and Halloween, it could open to over 50 million and prompt a new batch of sequels. With the first two films opening over 35 million Annabelle Comes Home is a good bet to over 30 million and finish in the 80 million range. Danny Boyle’s high concept film Yesterday could have a leggy run over 50 million after a mid teens opening.